So our experience yesterday:
8 average protected pike bases in two files approch 8 average protected bow bases in 4 files.
Ignoring that the pike might lose a base on the way in to shooting, in the charge combat the pike are up 2 so two yellow vs two white combat dice - statistically on average the pike will do five sixths of a kill, while the bow will do two sixths of a kill. A shove outcome may improve that a little for the pike. Lets say the bow are one base down.
In the melee the pike remain up 2, so again, two yellow combat dice vs two white plus two black for the bow overlaps. The pike could move their 4th rank bases out to make it two green vs green combats on the outer files but that may be better for the bows? Again maybe a loss of a base for the bow and by now probably a loss of a base for the pike.
At this "average" rate of attrition the pike will win, but it will take 3 to 5 or even 6 turns depending on luck of the rolls - not exactly a walk-over for the pikes.
Against Polearms or 2HCC the pikes are less advantaged.
Given the cost of the pikes (x4 bases per file), they seem a little weak/expensive on a per file basis.
8 average protected pike bases in two files approch 8 average protected bow bases in 4 files.
Ignoring that the pike might lose a base on the way in to shooting, in the charge combat the pike are up 2 so two yellow vs two white combat dice - statistically on average the pike will do five sixths of a kill, while the bow will do two sixths of a kill. A shove outcome may improve that a little for the pike. Lets say the bow are one base down.
In the melee the pike remain up 2, so again, two yellow combat dice vs two white plus two black for the bow overlaps. The pike could move their 4th rank bases out to make it two green vs green combats on the outer files but that may be better for the bows? Again maybe a loss of a base for the bow and by now probably a loss of a base for the pike.
At this "average" rate of attrition the pike will win, but it will take 3 to 5 or even 6 turns depending on luck of the rolls - not exactly a walk-over for the pikes.
Against Polearms or 2HCC the pikes are less advantaged.
Given the cost of the pikes (x4 bases per file), they seem a little weak/expensive on a per file basis.
